Cheaper California house prices are a holiday shopping bargain

As the year winds down to its festive end, homebuying – and prices – are typically in decline.

My trusty spreadsheet took a peek at a curious report on seasonal homebuying patterns from Attom, which tracked monthly pricing and sales for houses and condos between 2015 and 2024 for 49 states and the District of Columbia. (South Dakota was excluded due to insufficient activity.)

By focusing on a decade’s worth of sales that closed in January and February – deals that were likely shopped in November and December – it’s clear there were fewer sales and weaker pricing around the holidays compared with the other 10 months of the year.

Obviously, many sellers don’t want to upset their holiday mood by keeping a home on the market as the season’s celebrations intensify. Plus, numerous house hunters likely have other shopping priorities as the year comes to an end. These selling limits place a seasonal chill on what’s paid for housing.

According to this math, California sales prices were 7% lower for closings in January and February 2015-24 compared with the rest of the year. And that was no Golden State oddity.

California house hunters got the 18th-smallest discount among the states. The seasonal price cut equaled the nation’s holiday discount, too.

Vermont had the largest price bargains at 13%, followed by 12% in Michigan, Tennessee and Wisconsin. Only one state has wintry pricing above the rest of the year: New York was 2% higher.

Most merchants use price cuts to get us in the holiday gift-giving mood. In its own way, the housing market also offers seasonal bargains.

Not in a buying mood

Housing’s soft holiday pricing also parallels meager sales activity.

Across California, the pace of home sales that closed in January and February in 2015-24 was 28% slower than the rest of the year. That’s the 18th-largest slowdown, equal to the nationwide decline in homebuying.

Maybe the weather has something to do with who’s shopping for homes around the holiday? Ponder the geography of January-February homebuying.

The largest declines in wintry homebuying were in decidedly chilly spots: North Dakota (45%), New Hampshire (42%), Alaska, Iowa, and Maine (all 41%), Wisconsin (40%), Montana (39%), and Nebraska and Vermont (both 38%). Brrrr!

Meanwhile, the smallest sales dips were observed in milder climates, including New Jersey and Hawaii (both 17%), New York (18%), Maryland (19%), Arizona (20%), and Nevada and Florida (both 22%).

The dance

Home prices and sales counts largely dance in sync with each other throughout the year.

Industry insiders have long attributed the calendar’s influence on sales patterns to families wanting to move once school ended in late spring and the end-of-year distate for house-hunting. But as households with young children rapidly decline, will this pattern hold? And how much does the industry’s spring marketing push tweak the gyrations?

Consider that June was the No. 1 month for sales closings in 22 states in 2015-24, including California. August was next with 15. Note that January or February had the weakest sales in the 49 states tracked and D.C. January was California’s low.

Sales twists align with price fluctuations due to the level of competition house hunters face and/or the economic status of buyers and sellers in peak season vs. the slow months.

Prices peaked in July in 19 states and in June in 17. California’s top was May. And January or February marked the price bottom everywhere, except in New York and Georgia.

There are plenty of tips on how to buy affordably. Checking the calendar might be one of them.

Jonathan Lansner is the business columnist for the Southern California News Group. He can be reached at [email protected]